Does the Jim Johnson trade make more sense now? →

Alex Conway, of Orioles Nation, writing about the recently acquired Grant Balfour:

One of my favorite advanced statistics to look at for relievers is WPA or Win Probability Added. It measures the players effectiveness in so called high leverage situations. For instance, if a pitcher records an out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th with only a one run lead, a positive WPA score is given to the player. Conversely, if they give up a run in the same situation the player gets a  negative WPA score. I believe WPA is best used for relievers because in my mind, relievers exist to get outs in high leverage situations, if they don’t do that, then they aren’t very good relievers. Balfour has, over the past two years of closing, posted a WPA of 2.44 in 2012 and 2.56 in 2013.  He had the 15th best WPA for qualified relievers in baseball for the 2013 season.

This certainly is in line with Balfour's on field persona and the noted confidence he brings to every game. 

However, this acquisition, much like the Jim Johnson trade, does not exist in a vacuum. Balfour is Johnson’s replacement. Why I liked the Johnson deal when it was made is because of acquisitions like this. Dan Duquette turned Jim Johnson and his likely $10 million salary into Grant Balfour, Ryan Webb (you can read my analysis on Ryan Webb here), Jemile Weeks, and David Freitas. That’s two solid relievers, a starting 2B candidate, and some minor league catching depth for the same amount of money the Orioles would have paid Jim Johnson. I cannot say whether Johnson or Balfour will perform better next year, but they are essentially on the same plane of great, but not elite, closers.

Bingo. 

Paul recently talked about how we needed to wait and see how the off-season progressed to see if the Johnson trade would pay off economically.  It certainly has off the field.  We'll have to wait until the end of 2014 to see if it pays off on the field. 

The Hot Stove Rumormill

I'm always interested in the off season trade rumors, particularly the absurd rumors.  Remember the 2007 off season when Erik Bedard wasn't heading to Seattle but to Cincinnati for a package that would have included Joey Votto?  What about Felix Pie coming to the Orioles, not in the 2009 trade that saw the Orioles only have to give up Garrett Olson and Hank Williamson, but when he was supposed to be a cornerstone for a Brian Roberts deal in January 2008?

With Twitter making it easier than ever to break news (and false news), it's been fun watching the Grant Balfour situation play out over the last week and a half.  Regardless of whether you think writing about rumors is true reporting or not, it's the time of the year when amateur's come out of the woodwork to extoll the wisdom of their "sources."

Andrew Bickli, a Morgantown, West Virginia resident, was the first to get the Jim Johnson trade to Oakland. 

Last week, he announced that the Orioles had signed Grant Balfour.

But a week later, Grant Balfour still hasn't signed and it's not paperwork or a physical holding up the process.  It should just be a matter of days before the deal is closed, but that's the point - the deal wasn't close to being done yet was "reported."

Rickli nailed the Johnson trade.  But it's almost null and void when the next report is about a "done" deal, yet that deal is still being very much hashed out a week later.

Since last week, Bickli and Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports have been having a friendly skirmish back and forth on Twitter.  Yesterday, Roch tweeted again about the potential Balfour deal:

Moments later, Bickli sent another tweet out, clearly directed at Kubatko:

If the regular season and the off season trades and signings don't give you enough drama, Twitter has you covered.

I have no horse in this race but I'm more inclined to trust Roch, who covers the Orioles year round and has numerous sources.  Rickli got the Johnson trade right and my guess is he will claim ownership of the Balfour deal, if it gets completed.  But in the grand scheme of things, that's not better than me saying, "The Orioles will win a World Series in the future" and point to that claim as proof that I had inside information when the World Series victory eventually happens.

Andy McPhail's Best Trade →

Andy McPhail, talking to MASNSports.com Roch Kubatko:

But I think of all the things that we did, I'm not so sure that J.J. Hardy wasn't really the most important. You know how badly we struggled at shortstop for a couple years. To have somebody come in of that character and cement that position for that long of a period of time made a tremendous difference.

Lots of other good quotes from McPhail, including his thoughts on Buck Showalter, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and the Orioles in Sarasota for Spring Training.

Ryan Webb's Splits →

per FanGraphs:

Webb’s splits were noticeably lower in 2013 with the new approach as his wOBA against lefties dropped to .302; righties remained low at .278. These gains were achieved despite the fact Webb’s velocity has declined in recent seasons, although it did get stronger later in the season.

Webb’s addition in Baltimore is a nice fit for a bullpen that is full of relievers with strong to severe splits. While there are rumors of Baltimore moving Bud Norris to the bullpen to replace Johnson, Webb gives the Orioles another option to consider.

Patience is Bitter, but the Fruit is Sweet →

Dan Duquette, via Roch Kubatko:

"I think that's natural when you have changes to your club or to your roster," he said. "I think the important thing for our players and our fans to know is that we're going to do everything we can to have a competitive team here year in and year out. When I talk about reallocating the resources, if I trade a pitcher for an infielder and the infielder makes $10 million less than the pitcher I traded, then I have $10 million to go out and staff the team in other areas, to sign players with. So, I would ask people to wait until we're done shaping our ball club here for the 2014 season. We have some time to do it.

Bullpen Options →

via FanGraphs

O’Day has enjoyed more success against right-handed batters due to his arm angle, limiting them to a .246 wOBA over the past five seasons. That is 50 points below his wOBA against left-handed batters over the five-year span, but his 2013 splits were as drastic as Hunter’s. O’Day had a .207 wOBA against righties last season but a .384 against lefties.  This is where Matusz came into play.

O'Day didn't struggle against lefties prior to 2013.  I think the workload, plus less than stellar command, lead to the increase in his splits.  An at bat that stands out was against James Loney at Camden Yards in April.  O'Day left a fastball up and over, allowing Loney to homer to right-center.  It was almost all about location, as the same 85 mph fastball retired numerous lefties in 2012.  It just didn't get up and in enough on lefties, which was something that occurred more frequently in 2013. 

O'Day also wasn't healthy the last month of the season, something that could have been bothering him much longer.

There's Always Things Going On... →

Dan Duquette via Roch Kabatko:

Duquette chuckled and said, "There's always things going on around the Orioles.

That should be this year’s slogan. 

The Baltimore Orioles:  There’s always things going on.

If nothing else, it would be a really great troll on the people who think the exact opposite.

Gary Kendall on O's Prospects in AFL →

Gary Kendall on the O's minor leaguers in the AFL, via MASN Sports Steve Melewski:

"Probably the greatest thing about that championship was the Orioles made a statement that day," Kendall said. "Not just with Eduardo Rodriguez. You saw Tim Berry with his back against the wall. You saw Jon Schoop turn on a good fastball and pull it in the hole. We saw Urrutia dead center a ball 410 feet, and then hit another double 380, 390 to right center. It was just a great day for the organization."

The Keys won the Carolina League in 2007.  The Baysox won their division in 2008 but lost in the first round of the playoffs.  The Keys won the league again in 2010 with Manny and Schoop as integral parts of that team.  Prior to September 28, 2011, those were the highlights of the minor league system; and in some ways, the major league team.  It may make the AFL Championship seem insignificant but with ERod, Berry, and Urritia poised to make an impact on the major league level in the next couple of years, this could be something we look back at fondly.